AGP Executive Report

Iraq State Control Push: Two Iran-backed Shi’ite militias, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataeb Imam Ali, announced plans to disarm and hand weapons to Iraqi state control, with US envoy Tom Barrack praising the move as a step toward renewed Iraqi sovereignty. Israeli Incursions in Syria: Israeli forces carried out overnight vehicle raids and detentions in Quneitra, including a farm raid near Saida and searches in al-Usha, with no detention reasons given. Syrian Economy & Trade: Latakia port reported over 2 million tons of cargo handled in the first five months, citing modernization, faster customs procedures, and improved equipment. Regional Security Tensions: Bahrain condemned new Iranian attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait, while US forces said they intercepted missiles and drones. Lebanon Amnesty Debate: Lebanon is moving toward its largest post-civil-war amnesty, expected to reduce sentences and free thousands, but opponents—especially families of fallen soldiers—are protesting. US Legal Ruling: A US federal judge struck down Trump-era USCIS policies that blocked immigration benefit decisions for applicants from 39 countries, including Syria. Syria-Linked War Crimes Case: Austria began trial proceedings against former Syrian regime security officials over torture allegations.

US Courts & Immigration: A federal judge in Rhode Island ruled the Trump administration acted unlawfully by freezing asylum and other immigration decisions for applicants from 39 travel-ban countries, including Syria, ordering USCIS to resume processing. US Travel & Regional Security: The US Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security alert and reiterated Level 4 travel warnings for Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and Yemen amid “high tensions.” Lebanon War & Ceasefire Friction: Despite renewed ceasefire talk, reporting says Israel and Hezbollah kept fighting, with strikes continuing across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa. Syrian Courts & Energy Prices: Syria’s civil court dismissed a lawsuit challenging electricity price increases tied to a 2025 decision, citing lack of jurisdiction. Suwayda Detentions: In southern Syria, accounts conflict over whether “National Guard” detainees were released in an exchange, while officials say Internal Security is pursuing abductees. Syria’s Economy & Industry: Syria discussed low-enriched fuel for a reactor in Vienna, while other coverage points to efforts to revive investment and tourism. Regional Military Posture: Turkey’s intelligence assessment calls for major defense overhaul—air defenses, critical infrastructure protection, and readiness—driven by the Iran conflict’s reshaping of warfare.

Chemical Weapons Oversight: China urged an early resolution of Syria’s chemical weapons file at the UN Security Council, praising cooperation with the OPCW while warning against overreach beyond mandates. OPCW Documentation: The OPCW said Damascus handed over 34 sealed boxes of documents, as officials process findings tied to undeclared materials and past chemical munitions. Diplomacy & Regional Ties: Syria’s foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani met Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, pushing cooperation in energy, investment, economy and security, and conveying greetings from Ahmed al-Sharaa. Public Health in Conflict: WHO-backed reporting warned of worsening health conditions across conflict-hit Middle East areas, with Syria seeing rising measles cases and broader infectious-disease pressure. Transitional Justice Watch: A UK-focused reflection highlighted concerns about due process and detention without charge in Syria, spotlighting the case of journalist Bilal Abdul Kareem. Security & ISIS Fallout: In Australia, courts continued bail hearings tied to alleged ISIS-linked slavery crimes involving a Yazidi teenager in Syria, keeping the spotlight on accountability for abuses tied to Raqqa-era ISIS.

Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Talks: A US-brokered ceasefire framework in Washington hinges on Hezbollah stopping fire and withdrawing fighters south of the Litani River, but fighting and drone strikes continued as Lebanon began “pilot zone” deployments for exclusive state control. Lebanon Security & Casualties: Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa reportedly killed at least nine, with Hezbollah saying it hit Israeli troops and vehicles; Lebanon’s PM said the army’s phased deployment is meant to move toward full withdrawal. Syria Diplomacy: Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani visited Algeria to strengthen ties and discuss cooperation against extremists, including fuel and oil-and-gas rebuilding support. Chemical Weapons File: Türkiye backed Syria’s push to eliminate chemical weapons remnants, praising Syrian cooperation with OPCW and calling for stronger international support. Syrian Governance/Economy: The Syrian Central Bank governor said the next phase will be institutional and coordinated, with no improvised decisions. Education: Syria began 2026 Basic Education and Sharia Preparatory exams nationwide, with security measures reported in some areas. US Travel Warning: The US issued updated regional alerts, keeping Syria and several neighbors on “Do Not Travel.”

Alawite Boycott Push: A new Syria-wide campaign urges Syrians to avoid renting to, hiring, marrying, or even seeking medical care from Alawites, framing it as revenge after the Rania al-Abbasi disappearance case—sparking warnings that it amounts to collective punishment of a minority. Israel-Lebanon Truce With Hezbollah Conditions: Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew a ceasefire only if Hezbollah fully stops firing and withdraws operatives from south of the Litani, with U.S.-guided “pilot zones” for Lebanese army control—while strikes and rocket fire continued as diplomats met in Washington. Syria Accountability Spotlight: In Damascus, mourners held a tent for Dr. Rania al-Abbasi after deaths were confirmed, with officials saying the new government will pursue accountability for the regime-era disappearances. Iraq Arms Under State Control: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi met Iranian-backed militia leaders to press them toward disarming and joining state structures, even as observers warn a delayed showdown may follow. US Counterterrorism Cooperation: The U.S. said it and Nigeria carried out joint operations that killed a senior ISIS leader, highlighting expanding security ties. Humanitarian Neglect Watch: The Norwegian Refugee Council flagged Sudan and DR Congo as top “most neglected” displacement crises, warning millions are being left behind.

Asayish Integration in Hassakeh: Syria says it will integrate 9,000 Asayish personnel—about 1,000 women—into Hassakeh’s official security structure under the Interior Ministry, alongside screening procedures and continued SDF detainee releases. Transitional Justice Under Pressure: The Abbasi case, tied to the enforced disappearance and reported death of Dr. Rania Abbasi’s children, is pushing Syria’s transitional justice and missing-persons mechanisms into a harder legal test. Illicit Arms Crackdown in Damascus Countryside: Clashes in Zakya reignited fears over small-arms proliferation as internal security forces moved to disarm local factions and reassert state control. Security Campaign in al-Hasakah: SDF-linked Asayish/HAT launched a month-long drive with checkpoints, tighter vehicle monitoring, and a motorcycle ban to curb crime and detain wanted suspects. Tourism Security Push: Syria is creating a Tourism Police unit to guide visitors and secure routes as the government tries to revive the sector. Regional War Spillover: Israeli raids and Lebanon strikes continued amid renewed US-mediated ceasefire talks, while Iran-US negotiations and Gulf attacks kept regional politics volatile. Iraq-Syria Energy Corridor: Iraq approved expanded oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan and through Syria’s Mediterranean ports, betting on alternative routes as Hormuz disruptions persist.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Under Strain: An Israeli drone strike hit a car on the Khaldeh highway south of Beirut hours before a second day of direct talks in Washington, as Israel presses for Hezbollah disarmament and a wider ceasefire while Hezbollah keeps silent on the attack. Lebanon Escalation, Civilian Toll: Separate reports say Israeli strikes killed at least eight people in southern Lebanon, including a father and his children, even after Trump said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to dial back fighting. Iraq Arms Under State Control: In a major internal security shift, Iraq’s Shiite factions including Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Imam Ali Brigades announced steps to disengage from the PMF and place weapons under state authority, backed by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s push for a monopoly on arms. Syria Economic Signal: Syria’s National Private Sector Conference opened in Damascus, signaling a new economic vision as the government seeks investment and recovery momentum. Heritage and Governance: Syria’s ancient Afamia was added to ICESCO’s Islamic World Heritage Lists, while Syria’s wheat procurement dispute shows how policy changes still collide with farmers’ costs and food-security politics.

Labour diplomacy: Syria’s Minister of Labour Hind Kabawat met counterparts in Geneva on the sidelines of the 114th ILO conference to discuss cooperation on jobs and social policy. Airspace rebound: Damascus says aircraft transiting Syrian airspace in May jumped to 11,801—up 378% year-on-year—citing restored confidence and upgraded navigation and safety. Sanctions and recovery: Damascus is pushing for removal from the US state sponsor of terrorism list, arguing it is the main legal barrier still blocking investment and broader sanctions relief. Food and livelihoods: Wheat farmers across Syria are protesting government procurement prices they say don’t cover costs, testing whether new economic liberalisation can hold. Local governance tensions: In Suwayda, clashes and arrests followed “National Guard” attempts to enforce a judicial order over church property evictions. Returns from abroad: UNHCR says 196,000 Syrians have returned voluntarily from Jordan since Dec 2024, with returns rising in 2026 but funding still far short of needs. Regional transport push: Turkey is discussing a revived corridor linking Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Gulf states to reroute trade and energy logistics.

Sanctions & Reconstruction: Syria’s transitional President Ahmad al-Sharaa spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump by phone, pressing for lifting remaining sanctions as a key step to revive the economy, unlock investment, and improve living standards. Accountability in Europe: Austria has begun the trial of two former Syrian regime security officials in Vienna over alleged torture and mistreatment of detainees in Raqqa during 2011-2013, with prosecutors citing Austria’s legal duties under international agreements. Lebanon Front Spillover: Despite Trump’s claim that Israel and Hezbollah agreed to dial back fighting, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least eight, including a dentist and his children, while drone attacks also hit areas where Syrian workers were present. Regional Pressure on Syria: Syria’s civil aviation authority says nearly 12,000 flights crossed Syrian airspace in May, a sharp rebound after the Iran-war disruption, potentially boosting overflight revenue as airlines reroute through Syria again. Water Crisis: Euphrates flooding in eastern Syria has damaged farms and homes, with farmers in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa reporting destroyed crops and demanding compensation and support.

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Talks: The Lebanese US embassy says Hezbollah accepted a US proposal for “mutual cessation of attacks,” with Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs to stop if Hezbollah refrains from attacks across Israel, while negotiations are set to resume. Domestic Israeli Politics: Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urged Netanyahu to reject the US plan, warning it would “strike Hezbollah” less and restore security only by continuing pressure. Lebanon War Fallout: UNHCR reports families fleeing Beirut’s southern suburbs after renewed strike threats, as the UN calls for civilian protection and a diplomatic off-ramp. Syria Accountability in Europe: A former Assad-era Raqqa general pleaded not guilty in Austria to torture and sexual abuse charges, as another Syrian torture case also moves through Austrian courts. Syria’s Aviation Revenue: Reuters reports Syria saw nearly 12,000 aircraft overflights in May, driven by rerouting around the Iran war, potentially boosting overflight fees under the new government. US-Syria Envoy Shift: US President Trump named Tom Barrack as special envoy covering Syria and Iraq, expanding his mandate amid ongoing sanctions and reconstruction discussions.

US-Syria Sanctions & Reconstruction: President Ahmed al-Sharaa spoke with Donald Trump by phone, pressing for lifting remaining US sanctions as a “fundamental step” for Syria’s economic recovery and reconstruction, while Trump stressed stability and diplomacy to prevent regional escalation. Regional Energy & Security: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said gas supplies to Syria launched via a joint Türkiye-Azerbaijan initiative will back development and regional security, framing it as part of major pipeline projects. US Diplomacy Reset: Trump named Tom Barrack special presidential envoy for Syria and Iraq, expanding his mandate as the US shifts its Syria track toward deeper diplomatic engagement. Accountability in Europe: Two former Assad-era security officials went on trial in Austria over torture of detainees in Raqqa (2011-2013), underscoring ongoing legal pressure on the former regime. Extremism Case Linked to Syria: An Australian court heard allegations against Rayann El Houli over travel to ISIS-held Raqqa and indoctrination attempts, while her defense says she has renounced ISIS and violent jihad. Lebanon Spillover Into Syria’s Security: Israel’s widening Lebanon offensive—centered on the capture of Beaufort Castle—continues to raise cross-border tensions, with Israeli officials signaling further operations “in Syria” alongside Lebanon and Gaza.

US-Syria Sanctions Talks: President Ahmed al-Sharaa spoke by phone with Donald Trump, urging the lifting of remaining U.S. sanctions as a key step to revive Syria’s economy and attract investment, while both sides stressed diplomacy and coordination for regional stability. US Envoy Overhaul: Trump expanded the mandate of U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack, naming him special presidential envoy for Syria and also adding Iraq to his portfolio as Washington seeks deeper strategic cooperation with both governments. Missing Persons—Tadamon Case: Syria’s National Commission for the Missing said it has reached findings that Dr. Rania al-Abbasi’s children are deceased, while investigators and related teams pushed back on accusations about delays and handling of Tadamon massacre materials. Lebanon Front With Syria Implications: Israel’s ground push into southern Lebanon continued despite a ceasefire, with forces capturing Beaufort Castle and Netanyahu ordering an expanded incursion north of the Litani, as France called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting over the escalation. Euphrates Flood Fallout: Flooding in eastern Syria’s Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa began to recede, but authorities warned of ongoing disruption after Turkey’s water releases and Syria’s emergency dam discharges displaced thousands.

U.S.-Syria Diplomacy: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said billionaire Tom Barrack’s formal Syria envoy mandate has ended, but he will keep a leading role for Trump’s Syria and Iraq policy, leaving the next envoy unclear. ISIS Security: A U.S. Inspector General report warns ISIS could rebound after thousands escaped from Al-Hol camp in northeast Syria, exploiting a security vacuum. Missing Persons: Syria’s National Commission for the Missing confirmed with “professional certainty” that Dr. Rania al-Abbasi’s six children are dead, while efforts to locate remains continue. Euphrates Flooding: Floodwaters from the Euphrates surge displaced thousands in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa; Syria’s leadership and energy ministry teams say dam measures are gradually improving levels. Regional War Pressure (Lebanon): Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam called Israeli escalation “dangerous” and urged a ceasefire as strikes near the Beaufort castle and evacuation warnings intensify. Extremist Symbolism: Reports of Taliban flags in Damascus sparked concern about Sunni extremist propaganda momentum beyond Afghanistan. Cross-border Politics: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan said Ankara could normalize relations with Israel only if Israel stops killing Palestinians and allows Gaza essentials, tying it to a two-state solution.

US-Syria Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tom Barrack’s formal Syria envoy role is ending, but he will keep a “leading role” for Trump’s administration across Syria and Iraq, after a year helping shape Damascus’s post-Assad engagement. Water Security: Syria’s authorities warned of reduced Euphrates flows after Turkey cut water supplies, while Deir Ezzor and Raqqa faced major flooding and evacuations affecting about 2,400 families, with emergency teams and temporary shelters ramped up. Regional Conflict—Lebanon: Israeli strikes and artillery shelling intensified across southern Lebanon, with reports of civilians killed and evacuation warnings issued, as US-mediated talks continue alongside Hezbollah-Israel escalation. Cross-border Politics: Iraq announced preparations for a possible water surge from Syria, coordinating dam and reservoir operations to protect agriculture and services. Human Rights—PYD Abuses: A report alleged PYD militias kidnapped another child from displaced Afrin residents in al-Shahba, with the child’s fate still unknown. Justice & Accountability: A US nonprofit program is supporting survivors of Syria’s Sednayah prison as new mass graves are reportedly discovered in Damascus, deepening calls for specialized care and transitional justice. International Law Debate: Commentary and reporting again highlighted disputes over how powerful states treat international law, echoing wider concerns about accountability in the region.

Israel-Lebanon Escalation: Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people, including children, and pushed the regional death toll to 3,355 with over 10,000 injured, despite a ceasefire extended for 45 days—while UNICEF says children are being hit at an average of 11 killed or wounded per day. Gaza Control Push: Netanyahu directed the Israeli military to expand control in Gaza toward 70%, moving beyond the “Yellow Line” framework and deepening fears of further displacement and legal fallout. Syria Flood Response: Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Euphrates flood zones in Deir Ezzor, with embankments reinforced, drinking water delivered, and evacuations underway as homes, farms, and a bridge were damaged. Chemical Weapons Accountability: Syrian authorities detained 18 suspects tied to Assad-era chemical weapons operations, with analysts saying newly found munitions could strengthen future war-crimes prosecutions. Lebanon Amnesty Deadlock: Lebanon’s stalled general amnesty talks are worsening prison overcrowding and judicial backlogs, as sectarian factions fight over who gets included—raising the risk of a broader governance crisis. Syria’s Regional Connectivity Pitch: Syria is again positioning itself as a land-based corridor alternative to Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions, aiming to attract investment and trade links amid the Iran war.

Euphrates Flood Response: Syria’s defense ministry says it has launched evacuation operations in Deir ez-Zor after rising Euphrates levels linked to Turkey’s dam releases, with thousands of families affected and embankment work underway. Water Security & Emergency Measures: Syria’s energy ministry warns of “significant and unprecedented” increases from the Turkish side, prompting states of emergency and bridge outages in Deir ez-Zor and flooding impacts in Raqqa and Aleppo. Cross-Border Humanitarian Strain: A Druze volunteer network says Sweida remains unstable and dangerous, with hundreds of volunteers supporting nearly 600,000 people and documenting ongoing fallout from the 2025 violence. Syria-Government & Elections Watch: Reporting highlights Syria’s recent parliamentary process in former SDF areas and the political friction over Kurdish representation as Damascus moves to convene after elections. Regional Security Spillover: Israel’s strikes near Beirut and wider Lebanon escalation continue to complicate any Syria-adjacent political and humanitarian planning, even as ceasefire talks are discussed.