AGP Executive Report

Lebanon–Syria Justice Link: Lebanon detained former Assad-era Maj. Gen. Adel Issa, commander of the 17th Division, over alleged crimes including murder, torture and crimes against humanity, with possible handover to Damascus after Beirut requests his charge sheet. Security in Syria: Syrian forces reported killing two suspected ISIS militants near Sayyida Zaynab after an armed clash and said a separate attack in eastern Deir ez-Zor killed one soldier and wounded two. Regional Military Politics: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, treating attacks on any member as attacks on all—an issue Israel is already watching closely. Economy & Reconstruction Signals: The World Bank approved a $100 million grant to modernize Syria’s finance sector, while reports also highlight new regional energy and trade cooperation efforts involving Syria. Return Barriers in NE Syria: A new assessment of displaced Kurds in Sere Kaniye/Tel Abyad cites fear of arrest, lack of security, damaged homes and property confiscation as major obstacles to return.

TPS Legal Shock in the US: Two federal judges cleared the way for Trump to end Temporary Protected Status for South Sudan and Myanmar, after the Supreme Court limited lower courts’ ability to block DHS decisions—leaving about 232 South Sudanese and roughly 4,000 Myanmar nationals facing renewed deportation risk. Damascus Security: Syrian forces killed two suspected ISIS militants near the Sayyida Zainab area after a night patrol gun battle, with an improvised explosive device recovered. Israeli Incursions in Southern Syria: Israeli forces entered Ain Ziwan in Quneitra and set up a checkpoint, as Damascus warned such moves violate sovereignty and the post-2024 buffer-zone shift. World Bank Push for Syria’s Finance: The World Bank approved a $100 million grant to modernize Syria’s financial sector, aiming for safer, faster, more transparent payments and wider digital access. Regional Defense Realignment: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, treating an attack on one as an attack on all—while Iran dismissed it as “paper” security. Energy & Reconstruction Signals: Saudi Al Harfi Construction signed deals with Syria’s electricity sector for 760 MW solar plus 1,077 MWh battery storage in Damascus countryside.

Security & Governance: Syria’s parliament is framed as an “off ramp” for public grievances as protests grow, with the People’s Assembly symbolically tied to the country’s long fight against colonial rule. Terror & Public Safety: Damascus suburb Jaramana saw a minibus bombing that Syria first reported as two dead, then revised to 14 wounded and no deaths; officials say specialized units secured the scene and launched investigations. Regional Military Dynamics: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement,” pledging that an attack on one is an attack on all—an Article-5-style deterrence move amid heightened Gulf and Iran-Israel tensions. Border & Cross-Border Pressure: Reports say Israeli forces conducted an incursion into western Daraa, firing near villages before withdrawing, while Turkey and Syria also pushed closer security cooperation and border integration. State Capacity & Infrastructure: Syria reopened Deir ez-Zor International Airport after nearly 14 years, signaling a push to restore services and connectivity. Economy & Trade: Baniyas Port handled millions of tons of petroleum products and exported Iraqi oil via Syria’s transit system, underscoring the role of ports in postwar economic recovery.

Security & Civilian Safety: A bomb planted inside a minibus taxi exploded in Jaramana, on the outskirts of Damascus, killing at least two and injuring 13–14, with Syrian authorities saying forensic teams are handling remains and no group has claimed responsibility. Parliament & Representation: Syria’s first post-Assad parliament spotlights women lawmakers, with 22 of 207 seats held by women and 15 appointed by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, including a TV actress, a Christian engineer, a Kurdish leader, and the widow of a hardline Islamist commander. Regional Diplomacy: In Ankara, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Türkiye’s Hakan Fidan pledged deeper security cooperation, including counterterrorism and defense coordination, while discussing a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council and a proposed railway linking Syria, Türkiye, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Militias & Hezbollah: Analysis highlights Damascus’ outreach to Hezbollah’s leadership as Syria tries to balance security pressure with pragmatic regional engagement amid the group’s past role in the Assad era. International Counterterrorism: Russia’s military court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced a man to eight years for preparing to travel to Syria to join ISIS.

Syria-Türkiye Education Reset: Türkiye’s Council of Higher Education and Syria’s education ministry signed an MoU to expand higher-education cooperation and set up a Syria-Türkiye University in Damascus, aiming to lock ties into long-term institutional partnerships. Air Connectivity Returns: Syria reopened Deir ez-Zor International Airport after nearly 14 years, with the first domestic flights from Damascus and an initial international service from Kuwait, signaling a push to restore mobility and economic links. Regional Security Pressure: Türkiye’s FM Hakan Fidan told reporters that Israeli attacks threaten Syria’s sovereignty and stability, urging stronger international pressure and full respect for the 1974 disengagement framework. YPG Integration Under Scrutiny: Fidan also stressed that Syria’s integration process for former YPG members must continue, citing Türkiye’s security concerns and noting thousands have been folded into state institutions. Accountability in Quneitra: A new investigation by SIRAJ traced the 2013 Wadi Tuaim massacre in Quneitra and identified two former regime officers tied to the killings. Humanitarian Funding: Kuwait’s KFAED signed USD 5 million in grants with OCHA for Syria and Afghanistan humanitarian funds to support urgent, life-saving assistance. ISIS Threat Watch: UN briefers warned ISIS remains resilient and adaptive despite counterterrorism pressure, with the threat still serious for international security.

Damascus-Kurdistan Dialogue: The Kurdish National Council hailed Nechirvan Barzani’s Damascus visit as a “historic political step,” saying it will deepen ties, boost security, and support efforts to build a “new Syria.” Syria Recovery & IMF Oversight: The IMF says Syria’s economic recovery is accelerating, citing improved sentiment, refugee returns, and gradual re-integration, while urging continued fiscal, banking, and structural reforms. Eastern Syria Connectivity: Syria’s first direct commercial flight in over a decade landed in Deir al-Zour from Kuwait, signaling renewed civil aviation links after years of war damage. Regional Security & ISIS Threat: The UN warned ISIS remains resilient and adapts as its leadership is disrupted, pointing to Syria’s evolving political and security landscape as part of the wider threat picture. Israel’s Pressure on Southern Syria: Reports say Israeli forces are blocking farmers from land in southern Syria, using chemicals, bulldozing, and arrests amid a worsening hunger crisis. Turkey’s PKK Legal Framework: Türkiye’s ruling alliance submitted draft legislation to parliament to create a legal basis for PKK disarmament and dissolution, including pathways for some lower-ranking members to return from northern Iraq and Syria.

Israeli Incursions in Daraa: Syrian reports say Israeli forces penetrated Al-Wadi barracks near Jamla in western Daraa and set up a temporary checkpoint near Quneitra’s Jaba al-Khashab, as border tensions and ground violations reportedly escalate. Border Management: Syria temporarily closed the Al-Arida crossing with Lebanon for technical repairs, directing travelers to alternative points while bridge and facility work is completed. Damascus–Kurdish Integration Talks: Kurdish sources say Kurds are optimistic after meetings between Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF leaders in Damascus, as negotiations continue on integration into state institutions. Turkey–PKK Legal Framework: Turkey’s ruling alliance submitted draft legislation to parliament to manage PKK disarmament and reintegration, including legal protections and sentence suspensions for eligible returnees, while excluding top leaders and those tied to serious crimes. Turkey–Syria Diplomacy: Syria’s foreign minister Asaad al-Shibani is set to visit Türkiye for talks with Hakan Fidan focused on security, stability, counterterrorism, and YPG-related concerns. Syria–Lebanon Security Debate: Commentary and reporting highlight rising talk of Syrian involvement in Lebanon, while Lebanese officials reject proposals to “bring Syria and Lebanon together.” US Diplomatic Cuts: The Trump administration notified Congress it plans to close five smaller US diplomatic missions, including posts in Grenada, Japan, Indonesia, Canada, and Cameroon. Human Smuggling Crackdown: German and Europol-backed raids in Germany and Serbia targeted Syrian smuggling networks linked to routes into the EU, with multiple arrests reported. Syria’s Economy Watch: Coverage points to IMF forecasts of double-digit growth for Syria in 2026, alongside warnings that recovery still faces structural hurdles.

Syria’s Economic Turnaround: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating, projecting double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027, driven by agriculture, oil and gas, improved electricity, trade and services, plus returns of refugees and a visitor surge—while warning that poverty remains widespread and uneven across regions. IMF Technical Support: The Fund also agreed a technical assistance programme for Damascus focused on reintegration of returnees, jobs, public services, and restoring housing and infrastructure. Tourism Revival Meets Reality: Syria is betting on tourism to create jobs and foreign currency, with visitor numbers up sharply in 2026, but operators warn the rebound still depends on security, flights, and service capacity. Governance After Assad: Syria’s newly convened People’s Assembly has limited leverage and no direct voter mandate, but many Syrians see it as a key step toward rebuilding political representation and rights. Security Pressure on the Ground: Syria’s military raised its alert level and recalled personnel amid reports of additional deployments near the Syria-Iraq border. External Leverage in Energy: Syria has reportedly agreed to cut Russian oil imports drastically as part of talks aimed at lifting remaining U.S. sanctions, though officials warn replacements may take time. Diplomatic Reset: Russia appointed Dmitry Dogadkin as its new ambassador to Syria, signaling Moscow’s push to recalibrate ties and protect its interests. Human Rights and Accountability: A rights-focused report says impunity and retaliatory violence are fueling extrajudicial killings and deepening sectarian division, with Homs and Hama among the hardest hit. Regional Military Incursions: Israeli forces carried out incursions and searches in southern Syria’s Daraa and Quneitra, including a temporary checkpoint near Jabata al-Khashab.

Damascus-Kurdish Integration Talks: Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa met Nechirvan Barzani in Damascus to advance the Kurdish integration deal after clashes between Damascus and SDF-linked forces, with Barzani stressing rights for all communities and Sharaa highlighting economic and security coordination. YPJ Integration Debate: Rojava’s Women’s Protection Units said there’s still no official proposal from Damascus, though rumors suggest YPJ could be folded as a special anti-terrorism force under the interior ministry. Hezbollah Opens Door to Syria: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said there’s “no objection” to public talks with Syria’s leadership, calling for fraternal relations and urging Lebanon to engage Hezbollah while linking the issue to Israel’s continued presence. US-Sanctions Pivot via Oil: Syria agreed to cut Russian crude imports as part of negotiations with Washington tied to removing Damascus from the US state sponsors of terrorism list. Security Cooperation Call: Syria’s defense minister Murhaf Abu Qasra spoke by phone with Qatar’s defense affairs minister to review regional security and discuss coordination. Tourism Push Under Pressure: Syria reported 3.52 million visitors in H1 2026, up 111%, but warned tourism remains fragile due to flights, security, and services. Food Security in Northwest Syria: Qatar Charity expanded livestock support in Idlib and Aleppo with mobile veterinary clinics reaching tens of thousands of animals and market rehabilitation in Saraqib.

Damascus-Kurdish Talks: Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa met Kurdistan Region leader Nechirvan Barzani in Damascus to advance a Kurdish integration deal, including steps to fold Kurdish institutions and forces into the state, while also stressing economic cooperation and regional stability. SDF Leadership Reaction: SDF commander Mazloum Abdi called Barzani’s visit “historic,” saying it could improve Syria’s stability and help resolve the Kurdish file regionally. Kurdish Integration Details: Reporting says the January agreement is meant to integrate SDF structures into state forces, with expectations of further meetings involving SDF commander Abdi and Kurdish foreign relations officials. Sinjar Commemoration: Yazidis marked the 12th anniversary of the Sinjar genocide, with officials saying nearly 2,500 remain missing and that ISIS abducted thousands during the 2014 assault. Southern Syria Incursions: Israeli forces continued operations in Quneitra, including bulldozing the Al-Shuhar forest and conducting patrol incursions near Daraa/Quneitra border areas. Local Livelihoods in Northwest Syria: Qatar Charity expanded livestock support in Idlib and Aleppo, running mobile veterinary clinics, fodder distribution, and market rehabilitation to strengthen food security. Regional Energy Pressure (Hormuz): Analysis highlights how Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz may persist even as Gulf states seek alternative export routes, keeping shipping and regional politics tightly linked.

Damascus–Erbil Talks: Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa met Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani in Damascus, with discussions focused on economic cooperation, regional developments, and follow-up on the Damascus–SDF integration and ceasefire framework after clashes earlier this year. Kurdish Integration: Syrian sources say the talks also aim to strengthen coordination for security and stability, while Barzani’s visit is framed as the first high-level KRG engagement with post-Assad Syria. Southern Syria Incursions: Israeli forces carried out fresh ground incursions into Quneitra, setting up temporary checkpoints and searching civilians and vehicles, following similar activity in nearby areas. Regional Pressure on Iraq: Iraq faces mounting warnings from neighbors over attacks attributed to Iran-aligned factions, with Baghdad forming a joint security committee to prevent cross-border threats. Iran War Diplomacy: U.S. President Trump said talks to wind down the Iran conflict will begin Monday, while Iran’s foreign ministry denies current negotiations with Washington.

Southern Syria Security: Israel deployed vehicles and set up temporary checkpoints in Quneitra, searching civilians and passing traffic, as Damascus warns the moves violate the 1974 disengagement framework; Counterterror Operations: Syrian Interior Ministry says it dismantled an ISIS cell in Deir ez-Zor, detaining the alleged leader and seizing weapons and explosives after clashes; Local Governance Crisis: In Ain Mneen (Rural Damascus), authorities move to release detainees amid protests, shop closures, and municipal resignations, with residents demanding accountability for alleged assaults; Reconstruction Finance: J.P. Morgan joined QNB and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank to arrange a near-$7bn loan package for Qatar’s Power International Holding tied to Syria’s power and airport projects; Drug Control: Anti-narcotics authorities report seizing more than 7.1 million Captagon pills in July and dismantling trafficking networks; Diplomatic Outreach: Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani is set to meet Syria’s transitional president Ahmad Al-Sharaa in Damascus for bilateral talks; Regional Pressure on Iraq: Syria joins Saudi Arabia and Jordan in warning Baghdad to rein in Iran-backed militias operating from Iraqi territory.

Regional Security Pressure on Iraq: Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait are reportedly increasing pressure on Baghdad to rein in Iran-backed militias, as attacks tied to the militias threaten neighbors amid heightened tensions around the Arbaeen pilgrimage. Israeli Incursions in Southern Syria: Israeli forces set up a temporary checkpoint in Quneitra to search civilians and vehicles, following a raid and search in Daraa, with recurring incursions continuing after Israel’s control of the buffer zone. Syrian Digital Push: UAE-based entrepreneurs launched “My Syria,” a tourism and payments super app backed by Syria’s tourism ministry, aiming to expand verified services and enable cross-border digital payments. U.S. Travel Warning for the Middle East: The U.S. State Department urged Americans in the region to consider leaving or prepare for short-notice departures as escalation risks rise and airlines adjust schedules. Humanitarian Heat in Idlib Camps: Displaced families in northern Idlib face life-threatening summer temperatures inside tents, with limited water and electricity. Diplomacy and Consular Follow-up: Bahrain’s embassy said it coordinated with Syrian authorities to resolve cases where citizens were blocked at Damascus airport due to travel agencies failing to complete security clearances. Iraq Oil Export Moves: Iraq and Turkey signed/extended deals to boost exports via the Basra–Haditha–Kirkuk–Ceyhan route as Hormuz disruptions drive diversification.

Border Security Warnings: Syria and Jordan sent Iraq warnings to stop any use of Iraqi territory for attacks, stressing that any strike from within Iraq would be met with a direct response. Cross-Border Tensions: Syria also warned Iraq over reported Iran-backed militia activity near the border, as regional governments tighten security. Diplomatic/Consular Follow-Up: Bahrain’s embassy said it coordinated with Syrian authorities to get citizens who were stuck at Damascus airport after travel agencies failed to complete required security clearances. Internal Accountability: Israel Police suspended right-wing activist Yoav Eliasi after recordings surfaced alleging he used connections to influence law enforcement actions. Regional Security Footprint: A report highlights Türkiye’s SADAT consultancy expanding across West Africa, raising questions about Ankara’s private-security influence. Human Rights & Justice: Syrian authorities detained relatives in Daraa after the death of 12-year-old Noor Mohannad Al-Dous, with prosecutors alleging severe abuse and a custody dispute at the center of the case. Energy/Trade: Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal to boost crude exports via the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline amid Hormuz-related shipping disruptions.

Israeli Incursions in Daraa: An Israeli patrol of six vehicles infiltrated via Kafr Lama toward Wadi al-Raqad in southern Syria, briefly setting up a checkpoint before withdrawing back through Tell Abu al-Gheithar, with no arrests reported. Homs Infrastructure Hit: Syria’s state media says Israeli strikes damaged multiple bridges and border roads linking Homs to Lebanon, putting several routes out of service. Kurdish Political Training in Qamishlo: The Kurdish National Council held a four-day workshop on negotiation skills, covering dialogue tactics, bargaining, and team roles. Diplomacy in Erbil: Masoud Barzani met Germany’s outgoing consul general in Erbil and welcomed his successor, with both sides stressing cooperation on counterterrorism. Regional Energy Deal (Iraq-Turkey): Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to export 750,000 barrels per day through the Ceyhan pipeline as Hormuz closure pressures revenues. US TPS Legal Fight (Syria included): A US federal judge extended a stay blocking TPS terminations for eligible Somali nationals, while separate reporting says TPS for Syrians has already ended, raising deportation fears.

Israel-Syria Cross-Border Tensions: Syria has warned Iraq that any strikes launched from Iraqi soil against neighboring states could trigger Syrian action against the militias behind them, as regional escalation follows US-Saudi pressure on Iran-backed groups. UN and Political Transition: UN chief António Guterres visited Damascus and urged full international support for Syria, while UN reporting continues to press for lifting sanctions and backing recovery tied to restoring confidence and livelihoods. Security Arrangement Talk: President Ahmed al-Sharaa reiterated Syria’s push for a security arrangement with Israel, as Israeli incursions and shelling in southern provinces like Quneitra and Daraa continue to complicate any political track. Economy and Finance: Syria’s central bank signed a deal with Turkey’s central bank to open a Turkish lira deposit account, alongside steps to manage currency reforms and reduce Turkish lira circulation in Idlib. Regional Diplomacy: UAE and Syrian leaders held phone talks on cooperation and regional developments, while Saudi-Syrian de-escalation messaging also featured in bilateral calls. ISIS/Armed Groups: Syrian security forces carried out major operations in Aleppo targeting ISIS cells and seized weapons, underscoring ongoing counterterror priorities.